Is Federer still the GOAT ? Will Rafa or Novak create a twist in the tale ?
Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have been around on the tour for over three decades and yet they still continue to write history
Rafa’s recent victory at the French Open has reignited this debate. With just six months until the next installment in Paris, and Nadal’s powers seemingly refusing to wane on the clay, it would be hard to bet against him not overtaking Federer as the new leader of grand slam titles next year. Federer fans often used to base his status as the GOAT on his grand slam titles alone, however this is no longer the case and they will need to find new reasons for his claim to the throne.
In terms of the trophy cabinet, Federer had a head start over his fellow rivals and began his grand slam haul in 2003 before either Rafa or Novak where on the scene. This was a couple of years before Rafa got his maiden triumph over Mariano Puerta at the French Open in 2005, with Djokovic following three years later in 2008 with his triumph over a young Tsonga in the heat of Melbourne. Tsonga and Djokovic were on show as the next young stars of tennis that day, but only one went to live up to the hype.
A few years ago, Federer was in a clear lead in the grand slam race and seemed to be uncatchable, but just like in the tale of the tortoise and the hare, Nadal and Djokovic has slowly crept up towards their great rival. Federer’s inability to close out the 2019 Wimbledon, one in which he missed two match points against Djokovic in his toughest defeat ever, failed to cement his lead, and has given both Djokovic and Nadal a fighting chance to reach him in the race for grand slam titles.
Currently, Nadal and Federer sit tied together on 20 grand slams, with Djokovic close behind on 17. With Federer turning 40 next August and his recent setback with surgery, including two knee surgeries during the coronavirus pandemic, it remains to be seen whether he can win any additional grand slams. This creates a window of opportunity for Djokovic and Nadal. Federer can never be discounted as we saw when he come back from surgery to take a triple grand slam sweep (Australian Open -Wimbledon- Australian Open) between 2017 and 2018. People were waiting for one last golden moment for Federer for over five years since his triumph at Wimbledon over Murray in 2012, but he not only won three more grand slam titles, but also successfully retained one as a defending champion at the Australian Open.
The general public typically favour Federer as the GOAT on sentimental and emotional value. It is hard not to love someone who oozes class and technical perfection. Federer is the poster boy of the sport, effectively the Ronnie O’Sullivan or Tiger Woods of the sport, and thinking of tennis brings Federer first to mind before any other player. He is the extremely marketable and his logo is the most well known, with his famous cap seen countless times around the grounds at Wimbledon during the championship fortnight, although he has only just recovered his famous RF logo from Nike after a two year hiatus following his move to Uniqlo.
This debate becomes even more difficult when there is no criteria by which to judge these great players, be it head to head record, number of titles, career wins or even what each player has done to the sport in general and their overall impact. Should we judge them by criteria other than grand slam titles? A lot of people, including Andy Murray, say that Federer is the most enjoyable to watch. Does this have any standing compared to statistics, after all tennis fans have a long memory and often base their viewpoints on emotion.
Legacy is important in tennis. There are a number of players, such as Safin and Nalbandian, who live long in the memory of fans despite not living up to their potential. The now-retired Argentine Nalbandian is still the only player to ever beat Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic at the same tournament, achieving this feat in 2007 at the Masters 1000 in Madrid.
Based on head to head records, Novak Djokovic could be regarded as the greatest. Djokovic is both dominant in finals and total matches played against the other two. As of November 2020, he leads Nadal (29–27) and Federer (27–23). However, Rafa does lead Djokovic in grand slam matches (10–6) by a clear margin. Djokovic leads Federer 11–6 in grand slam competition. Djokovic has a positive head to head record against basically every other player on the tour, bare a few exceptions, including Nick Kyrgios (0–2) and Ivo Karlovic (1–2).
In terms of individual rivalry, the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry is regarded as the greatest by tennis fans. It is the most played encounter in the history of the sport in the Open Era. Nevertheless, it is important to not downplay the significance of the Nadal-Federer rivalry. They have played 40 times, with Nadal leading 24–16, including arguably one the greatest matches of all time in the rain-delayed 2008 Wimbledon final. Despite all the odds, Rafa and Roger have never played at the US Open in Flushing Meadows, which both players feel a bit poignant about, whilst Djokovic and Nadal have played at all of the grand slams finals.
Djokovic is the only player in history to win all of the masters titles- not just once, but twice. Djokovic also had two remarkable seasons in 2011 and 2015: two of the best in the Open Era. In 2011, Djokovic won three grand slams and ended the year with an astonishing 10–1 record against Rafa and Federer. Djokovic had a record breaking season in 2015, and his season that year is often regarded as the greatest performance by a player in history. Djokovic reached the finals of all the grand slams (winning 3 of them) and ending the season with an astonishing 82–6 record, although he did not contest any grand slam finals against Rafa that year.
Djokovic is also the only player in history to hold all four grand slams at the same time, after beating Murray at the 2016 French Open Final. Although, Djokovic and Federer both have won all the grand slams, Federer has never managed to overcome Nadal in Paris despite playing six times unlike Novak, so Federer can count himself a bit fortunate that he seized the occasional when Nadal crashed out to Soderling in the fourth round in 2009. Djokovic is one of two players to have beaten Nadal at the Roland Garros, and he did this during his record breaking 2015 season in the quarter finals, although he lost in the final to an exceptional performance by Wawrinka.
A major argument for Djokovic’s claim to the throne is that he had to win all of his grand slams playing in the toughest generation in the open era. The Nadal-Federer rivalry was already well established before he came to the scene, but he tore it apart and threw it on its head, and forced the other two to adapt and try to change their game.
Until 2018, Federer had not beaten Nadal at any grand slams except Wimbledon. Federer has said that this was partly due to being mentally scared from his losses at the French Open. Federer now has lost six times to Nadal at Roland Garros in total, although 4 of these were tough four setters. Nadal almost seemed unbeatable against Federer for over a decade, targeting his backhand with aggressive top spin shots. Nadal even came to Federer’s fortress Wimbledon to win one of the greatest matches of all time, but Federer failed to replicate the same at Roland Garros in the lair of Rafa. Djokovic arrived on the scene in 2008 and traumatised Nadal for several years as Nadal did to Federer. Djokovic beat Nadal in three consecutive grand slam finals from 2011 to 2012, although Rafa then did the same to Djokovic from 2012 to 2014, which is another confirmation of the fighting spirit of Rafa and his ability to adapt his game.
Federer has had the easiest draws in the grand slams out of the three players, particularly due to being around the longest, and has faced a large number of players outside the big three in his wins in finals (including Cilic (twice), Philippoussis, Safin, Roddick (four times), Hewitt, Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Soderling). Djokovic did not have the benefit of playing a list of players this diverse in finals, and had to mostly the affront the big three or other grand slam champions, including Thiem, Murray and Del Potro. If we ignore grand slam finals against players outside the traditional big four (including Murray), Federer just has 7 grand slams, Djokovic 13 and Nadal 11. If we then exclude Murray from the finals, Federer reduces to 4 grand slam wins (3 against Rafa and one against Novak), Djokovic 8 and Rafa remains on 11.
Federer won his first grand slam title aged 21 over Mark Philippoussis. Federer used to be regarded as a late bloomer by most journalists, but with the failures of the next gen stars, this seems to be less of a case now. Nadal was the youngest to win his first grand slam aged 19, when he took the French Open on his debut, whilst Djokovic took his maiden Australian open aged 20. Djokovic, at 33, is the youngest of the three giants of the sport, with Nadal 34 and Federer 39. Federer is considerably older than both Djokovic and Nadal, so some people may argue is to unfair to compare them on head to head record as Federer may have been at his best physically before Djokovic came to the scene and that the age difference could have had an impact on his results against due to the high intensity of the matches between these great players. Is it fair to compare a nearly fourty year old with two guys still before their mid 30s ?
Each of the big three is unique in their own way. They all have arguably some of the greatest shots in tennis and a grand slam which belongs to them through an open era record. Djokovic holds an open era record for the most Aussie Open Titles (8), Federer most Wimbledon titles (8) and Nadal has most French Open Titles (13). Federer has arguable the best volley’s and serve out of the three, Djokovic the backhand and return, and Nadal the forehand and fighting spirit. Creating a hybrid player from the best characteristics of these players would be scary, and it’s hard to imagine how anyone else on the tour would get any grand slams.
The general public favour Federer due to his calm persona and image. Nadal also has a wide fanbase both within fans and the public. Djokovic is the least loved by the public due to his regular outbursts and perceived unsportsmanlike behavior, such as due to his occasional injury timeouts in critical moments of the match. Djokovic is extremely well respected by tennis fans alike and the majority agree he is the most complete player of all time. Tennis fans are generally torn between Nadal and Djokovic as the GOAT, but the public favour Federer.
Out of the big three, Nadal comes across as the most humble and is the best example for juniors to follow. Nadal always take defeat on the chin and aims to act respectfully as he knows that is what he will be remembered by in the future. Nadal has never thrown his racket in an ATP tennis match, unlike Djokovic who regularly smacks balls or demolishes his racket. Federer is also a good example of someone who is able to stay emotionless throughout a tennis match. However, this was not always the case and he used to have severe tantrums as a junior, and this still occasionally comes across when things do not go his way, such as swearing when conversing with the umpire or even cracking a racket against Djokovic in Miami in 2009. The few times where Rafa has lost his head on the tour, he has mostly just refused to play for several minutes without any swearing, and in these situations he usually has a genuine reason as the umpire has made a clear mistake.
In terms of dedication to tennis, Nadal is second to none. He has refused to have any children whilst playing tennis to avoid any disturbances to the winning formula. During an interview, Rafa has said that the only thing which he cannot control is his love of chocolate, and frequently dips into the fridge even after brushing his teeth, and particularly enjoys chocolate with milk. Rafa only recently got married, which shows how his superstitions branch into real life. Djokovic did not stop himself from having kids like Nadal, and has a couple himself. Regarding DNA, Federer is a genetic freak, with two sets of twins: girls and boys.
Nadal is the ultimate professional and has reinvented himself in his thirties to a more attacking style. The ability of these players to adjust to the challenge is part of what makes them great, such as Federer increasing the head size of his racket in the later stages of his career as well as implementing new shots into his game, such as the SABR (sneak attack by Federer). In terms, of game style Djokovic has reinvented himself the least over the years, and still employs the same physical game and strong return of serve, although he has occasionally implemented volleys into games or at critical moments, with varying degrees of success. In terms of a single surface, Nadal with his 13 Roland Garros titles, is surely the greatest, with clay also being the most physical surface of all. Some people describe Nadal as a one trick pony as he has won the majority of his titles on the red stuff, but he is the only player from the big three to have won the golden slam, which is all of the grand slams plus a gold medal in singles in the Olympics. Rafa has also been very unlucky at the other majors, such as getting injured against Wawrinka in the 2014 Australian Open Final.
Despite all of their achievements, not a single member of the big three has won all there is to win in the tennis calendar surprisingly. Nadal has the lowest prize left to complete his collection, with just the ATP World Tour finals missing. This is the final tournament of the tennis season, when the top eight players battle it out for one last trophy. Djokovic and Federer are both missing the Olympic Games from the cabinets, and will probably get their last chance whenever the next games will be held in Tokyo.
Nadal has been notoriously plagued by injuries towards the end of the season, due to his intense game, which has stopped him succeeding at the last two indoor events, Paris and the ATP Tour Finals. Rafa has won big in London and Paris many times but not in the indoor events unfortunately, despite having a good record in them and reaching the finals on multiple occasions. Nadal has secured only one indoor title over the course of his career — way back in 2005, in Madrid, when he came back from two sets to love down to beat Ivan Ljubicic (now Federer’s current coach) for the title. This surely puts a dent in his ambitions to be known as the all-time great.
Comparing the big three is almost impossible, we should just be happy that in our lives we have witnessed such great extraordinary players consistently break a myriad of records over three decades. It is worth noting that the big three used to be known as the big four for many years and has only been downgraded to the big three since the serious hip injury of Andy Murray, which involved several operations including hip resurfacing and who is still trying to return back to the top of the rankings. A pro tennis player had never before returned to singles following this, only Bob Bryan for doubles, who is one of the greatest doubles players of all time along with his twin brother Mike. This is testament to Andy Murray’s willpower and he even got advice from Bob Bryan before his operation.
Without this triplet of players, Murray would be likely to have over ten grand slams. Murray is in the top ten for most statistics in the Open Era, which shows his superior consistency to other top 4 challengers such as Wawrinka. Murray still has a stellar accolade of achievements which is not worth forgetting, including being the only player to win two consecutive Olympic singles gold medals (which neither Federer or Djokovic have won) ,the year-end world number one ranking (some players say this is harder than a grand slam), three grand slam titles and the World Tour Finals (which Nadal has not won), which surely makes him one of the greats also. Stan Wawrinka, can be viewed as part of the Big Five, with his three grand slam titles (equaling Murray), but the consistency, records, trophy cabinet and superior head to head record of the Big Three keeps them one step ahead of the pack.
The Open Era began in 1968 when the grand slam tournaments allowed professional players to compete with amateurs, with the grand slams previously being reserved to only amateurs with no prize money allocated for the first 90 years. Despite all the big four have achieved, the Open Era has not been going on for relatively long time compared to other sports. The Fifa World Cup began in 1930 which is over 35 years before the grand slams opened their doors to professionals, although the advent of the grand slams was in 1987. There have been many changes to the tennis tour since the dawn of the Open Era. For example, years ago most grand slams were played on grass. The US Open was played on grass until 1975, until being switched to hard after three years on the clay from 1975. Meanwhile, the Australian Open was moved from lawn to hard in the 1980s, as well as the date Christmas to January to become the first grand slam of the year, in an attempt to gain more players as for many years top players rarely played at the end due to the 45 days sea voyage and low prize money. The French Open has been the only Grand Slam to be not played on grass since 1928, although it was also played on the grass in the 19th century before it was moved to its present venue in the Stade de Roland Garros
Tennis has seen a variety of adjustments over the years, from technological, such as the addition of hawk-eye, serve clock for time violations to even new scoring formats. Masters 1000 finals used to be contested as best of five sets, and grand slams could go on indefinitely (the match between Isner and Mahut at Wimbledon, which ended 70–68 in the five set, is the longest). Currently, all the grand slams except the French open have changed their five set format. Wimbledon now plays a tiebreak at 12–12, whilst the US Open and Australian Open both play tiebreaks at 6–6 in the final set, leaving the Roland Garros as the toughest grand slam to win with its original format. The format of tennis is likely to change in the future, such as sets may even up to four (as trialed in the next gen finals), and we may even see the end of 5 set matches at grand slams, which Djokovic has campaigned for due to the length of the tennis season being longer than most sports. The women’s game is extremely volatile with new grand slam champions every year, even unseeded champions barely raising an eyebrow, which is partly due to the three set format requiring a different level of physical and mental toughness compared to five set matches. If we see the end of five set matches, then this will only make the big three more legendary in terms of their achievements.
The big four have won 27 % of the grand slams contested in the Open Era, which makes over a quarter. This is an incredible statistic considering the first member of the big three, Federer, only won his first grand slam in 2003, 35 years before the Open Era began. At the end of the day, we have to just take the big three as a whole and appreciate that we are witnessing an incredible moment in tennis history. Each of the players has been instrumental to pushing the other to adapt and reach above and beyond their potential. Although it is hard to say we will ever see players as good as the big three is can never be discounted and we may even seen greater players in the future. In sports, records are made to be broken, even Rafa’s record 13 wins at the Roland Garros.
The dreams that the big three have shattered for countless players is further evidence of their domination on the world tour. The big three have repeatedly broke countless grand slam dreams over the years for players such as Gasquet, Dimitrov, Tsonga, Verdasco, Roddick, Cilic, Davydenko, Ferrer and Nalbandian to name a few, and that does not include the lower ranked players they beat in the lower stages of the grand slams for them never to recover mentally.
The recent crop of next gen stars, including Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Shapovalov and Zverev are no longer kids. The rising stars such as Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Alissiame will also need to start performing soon to prove their worth. In a past interview, Tsitsipas recently said “I’m no longer a next gen star, I’m a grown man”, and its time the next gen stars began rising to the occasion. The scandals which follow them around, in the case of Zverev and Kyrgios, it not making it any easier for them. Djokovic even once said that his younger brother, Djordje, would be better than him, but he has never arrived on the scene. Djordje Djokovic is not 25 years old and his greatest achievement to date is reaching the doubles quarterfinals at the 2015 China Open.
The average age of grand slam champions has increased over the last couple of decades. The big three had to go through more hardships to reach the top of the game and work for where they got to compared to the next gen stars, who got it more fed to them on a plate. This was emphasized by Toni Nadal during a TedX conference, and could be responsible for the younger stars struggling to displace Fedal and Djokovic at the top of the rankings. For example, Djokovic had to survive the Belgrade bombing as a kid which partially ignited his desire to become a grand slam champion. The tennis showman Behrami famously learnt tennis at the bottom of a swimming pool with a broom and saucepan. He begged his parents for a racket and initially got a doll from his neighbour after being promised a racket. It would be good to see something different as a tennis fan, and hopefully the recent victory of Thiem at the US Open is a sign of a change in the order.
Sources:
- https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2020/11/rafa-nadal-has-won-big-paris-and-london-just-not-fall/91652/#:~:text=Remember%2C%20too%2C%20that%20Nadal%20has,Ivan%20Ljubicic%20for%20the%20title
- https://strigroup.com/the-rise-fall-and-rise-of-grass-court-tennis/
- https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/what-is-the-meaning-of-the-open-era-in-tennis
